Henry Misses the Target on What Arsenal Need to Compete
Thierry Henry made some intriguing comments prior to and post Arsenal’s 0-0 draw with Chelsea. The Arsenal legend stated “Arsenal need a new goalkeeper, centre back, holding midfielder & top quality striker in order to win this League”. Henry also noted he would have “brought Cesc Fabregas back to Arsenal” and “would’ve put Ozil on the bench for Fabregas”. Continuing on that topic, Henry proceeded to critique Ozil’s performance in big games, saying Arsenal need more from him in those contests. Finally, Henry articulated his belief that Arsenal cannot and will not win the Premier League with Olivier Giroud leading the line. While I have the utmost respect for King Thierry, I resolutely disagree with nearly every element of his opinions, acumen, and conclusions on Sunday.
Olivier Giroud & a Top Quality Striker
Dealing first with the comments surrounding Olivier Giroud, Henry insisted that Arsenal could never win the league with the Frenchman leading the line. Examining players in the Premier League, Giroud currently ranks 4th in goals per 90 minutes. Papiss Cisse leads the lot with a rate of .97, Diego Costa is second with a rate of .88, Sergio Augero is 3rd with a rate of .87, and then Giroud’s .84. Judging on a per game basis, Giroud also ranks 4th behind Costa, Kane, and Aguero. As the stats show Giroud is not far off from Diego Costa, whose team is about to win the league title, and Serigo Aguero, whom almost everyone agrees is a world-class striker when healthy. If a team with Costa leading the line can win the title, stats indicate a team with Giroud leading the line can also win the title. Discounting Grioud’s goal contribution, which is significant, there is also the element of how he allows Arsenal to play stylistically. As Arsenal fans will surely remember, the team struggled in the three months Giroud missed due to a fractured ankle. His hold up play creates lanes and available space for runners, his passing constantly creates chances for others.
Presuming Arsene Wenger decided Olivier Giroud wasn’t good enough and he wanted a “top quality” striker as Henry indicated, who is available to buy? Top end strikers don’t grow on trees, they aren’t readily available at the local market, and if a team has one they likely are not selling. Wenger tried to buy Luis Suarez two summers ago but the move was sabotaged when Liverpool refused to honor a clause in Suarez’s contract. If I had to list the top quality strikers in the word: Messi, Ronaldo, Suarez, Aguero, Lewandowski, Ibrahimovic (up for debate, obviously). That’s 6 players in the whole world and two of them play for the same team. Some may want to include Costa but statistically he is too close to Giroud for argument’s sake. Taking the players I listed out of the equation, as those teams are highly unlikely to sell, who is left to buy? Karim Benzema is always a popular name. Taking out the fact that Arsenal would have to convince Real Madrid to sell, Giroud has a better goals per 90 metric at .84 compared to Benzema’s .61 and a better goals per game metric at .64 compared to Big Benz’s .54. Gonzalo Higuain is another candidate as Wenger nearly bought him the same summer as Suarez. Using the same statistics, Giroud again has a better goals per 90 than Higuain’s .56 and a superior goals per game compared to Higuain’s .48. Mario Mandzukic has been loosely linked with a move to Arsenal in the past but his totals on goals per 90 (.61) and goals per game (.5) don’t even come close to Giroud’s totals this season. The available strikers on the market are not better than Olivier Giroud and stats prove they wouldn’t be an improvement. If Wenger decided on a younger talent, like say 23 year old Lyon standout Alexandre Lacazette, that may make more sense as it helps Arsenal now by giving them a multitude of options and has an eye to the future as Giroud approaches 30 years of age.
Fabregas & Ozil
The Ozil – Fabregas debate has been popular ever since Arsene Wenger declined the option to bring Cesc back this past summer. Henry said he would bench Ozil for Cesc, and looking at purely assists one could see why as Cesc has 16 compared to Ozil’s 5 (in the Premier League). While assists are important, they are not the end all be all. If a player passes the ball to another player, who proceeds to score a wonder goal, the player who passed it will get the assist while contributing virtually nothing. Measuring in chances created per 90 minutes, Ozil’s 2.92 bests Cesc’s 2.89. In goals per 90 minutes, Ozil’s .25 bests Cesc’s .1, and Mesut’s 2.6 key passes per 90 edges Fabregas’ 2.3. Ozil also has a better successful take on per 90 (2.79) than Cesc (.97), and is fouled more than Fabregas. Henry is entitled to his opinion and perhaps the fact that he is clearly friendly with Cesc plays into his analysis. The stats show that at the very least the players are comparable and in most key areas Ozil proves to be the better option.
Centre Back
Henry’s comments about Arsenal needing to purchase another centre-back was rather perplexing giving the seemingly myriad of options The Gunners appear to have at that position. Going into this season Arsenal had Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker who formed a great partnership, and bought Calum Chambers to replace a departing Thomas Vermaelen. Chambers is young, having just turned 20 this past January, but proved himself immediately to be a reliable option at centre-back (less so at right-back in my opinion). Wenger then went out and purchased Gabriel Paulista in January to add to Arsenal’s centre-back options. Gabriel was a smart purchase as he seems a rugged defender who can play on the ball and he provides a ready-made replacement for Mertesacker when the time comes. In addition to the already listed options, Nacho Monreal have proven to be a more than adequate fill in at centre-back and Mathieu Debuchy has also filled in when needed. Given recent purchases, Arsenal appear to have more cover at centre-half than any team in the league, while fostering a nice mix of youth and experience at the position.
Goalkeeper & Defensive Midfielder
The two points that Thierry Henry raised that have the most credence are regarding the goalkeeper and defensive midfield situation at Arsenal. Arsenal have needed a defensive midfielder for years but the emergence of Francis Coquelin complicates the situation a bit. Rumors have linked Arsenal to William Carvalho, Geoffrey Kondogbia, and Morgan Schneiderlin but would these players still desire the move when they have to fight with Coquelin (statistically the BPL’s best defensive midfielder since assuming the role) for starts? Some may argue they can partner with Coquelin but if that’s the case how do you fit Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, Mesut Ozil, and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain all into the side? I firmly believe Arsene Wenger will sign a defensive midfielder this summer, in fact I’m almost sure of it. However, I reject the notion that the absence of one has cost Arsenal the league this season. Had Couquelin been installed from the start of the season and Arsenal had avoided the heaping pile of injuries that plagued the early part of their season, they could have won the league. Stats prove Arsenal have accumulated the most points in the Premier League since Coquelin assumed the role as defensive midfielder.
The goalkeeping comment from Henry is one that echoes the sentiment of many fans. Wojceich Szczesny has fallen out of favor with Arsene Wenger due to attitude issues and his performances of late have been less than convincing. Szczesny clearly has talent but his attitude may keep him from having a future at Arsenal. David Ospina has done an admirable job since assuming the role between the sticks but some of that can be put down to Arsenal’s improved defense. Since Ospina has taken over, Arsenal have allowed less shots and had their first choice players available far more frequently than when Szczesny was playing earlier in the year. Ospina will clearly stay but if Szczesny goes, who is available for Arsenal to buy? The goalkeeping market is even worse than the striker market when it comes to top-end options. When it comes to top-quality goalkeepers, I think of David de Gea, Hugo Lloris, Manuel Neur, and Thibaut Courtois. That’s just 4 in the whole world. Lloris appears to have a 20mil Euro buyout in his contract for UCL clubs if Tottenham fail to make the top 4 this year, but would he want to switch Tottenham for Arsenal and risk the fury of Spurs fans? Furthermore, if David de Gea completes his rumored switch to Real Madrid, Manchester United could be in for Lloris’ services. Petr Cech appears to be on his way out of Chelsea and Arsenal have been linked, but that would depend on Mourinho allowing his sale to Arsenal (it’s been rumored Cech will be allowed to chose his destination). Cech will be 33 in May and has been a backup for a season, is he still a top-quality option? If De Gea does go to Real Madrid, that could free up Iker Casillas for a move somewhere else. Casillas will be 34 in May and there are some questions about whether his skills have diminished. I’m of the opinion that goalkeepers can play well into their 30’s and Cech or Casillas would be fine options if Arsenal choose to buy a goalkeeper, but neither are world class options anymore.
Conclusion
Arsenal haven’t won the League Title in 10 years time and I fully understand how that weighs on fans and makes them get overly emotional. Henry, as a player, is emotional about his former club and wants to see them do well. However, emotion cannot override logic and reason or else the wrong decision will be made. Arsenal are on the verge of possibly their second major trophy in as many years and a 2nd place finish after one of the worst starts in Wenger’s tenure at the club. The Gunners have a deep squad with seemingly two decent options at nearly every position. Unlike other major clubs, Arsenal are in no trouble with Financial Fair Play, which gives them a leg up in the market. Shad Fosythe has seemingly found the cure for the injury issues that have plagued Arsenal in the first half of this season and for nearly every season in recent memory. When mostly fit, this squad can contend with any team in the league and results bear that out. This is not to say Arsenal shouldn’t strengthen in the summer, they should address whatever weaknesses they have as their rivals will surely be doing as well. Nevertheless, the need to add 1 or 2 players shouldn’t obscure the fact that this squad is virtually complete, can compete with anyone in the league, and has the ability to win the Title next season.
What do you think? Did Henry get it right? Was he slightly off the mark? Completely off?
