Farewell Cesc, we hardly knew ya.

Well, this may be a little premature as neither club has confirmed anything “officially” but all signs are pointing to the fact that the deal for Arsenal’s captain, Cesc Fabregas is all but done. If it is true it ends 3 summers of constant spin and speculation and marks a shift in the general makeup of Arsene Wenger’s side.

When the news broke yesterday it was first carried by Guillame Balague (or however you spell his name). Balague is notorious for making very misleading statements so originally this was met with some intrepidation.  However, the story on Fabregas’ transfer picked up steam when the BBC quoted an unnamed Arsenal board member as saying the deal had been agreed upon, it was just going to take a couple days to finalize.

The Deal

The deal looks to be around £37 million (€40 million). Barcelona look set to pony up £29 million up front and £6 million in added bonuses. Additionally, Fabregas is set to forgo about £4 million he would’ve been due from Arsenal. In Fabregas’ current contract he has a clause that pays him £1 million for every year that remains on his contract if he is sold.

One of the reasons this deal took time was Barca’s original insistence that the up front cash be the equivalent of 25% of the deal. Arsenal wanted the up front payment to equal 70% of the deal. The rationale and something confirmed by the BBC’s unnamed board member, is that club wants to immediately turn the £29 million into player purchases.

If you are curious about the add ons and what they equate to, they essentially are performance based payments. What was interesting is that they are not individual player performances but how Barcelona fares in their competitions. In the original agreement the add-ons were £6 million should Barcelona win two Champion’s League titles and one La Liga title. Arsenal knowing that the liklihood of Barcelona winning two more CL titles while probable, would diminish as the squad got older and new players introduced, looks to have negotiated – two La Liga titles and one Champion’s League title. I am assuming that the add-ons would be paid not when all three are achieved but when each of the titles is won. I wouldn’t be surprised if the add ons are the equivalent of £2 million per achievement.

Whether the total fee represents fair value for Cesc is up for discussion. I know for me it seems to fall short but at this point, this saga has turned into a circus – for all parties.  Talking with some Barcelona fans they are agast they took this long, with this much focus on one player they don’t really need and they are stunned by the price. The only thing they are truly happy about is that it didn’t equate to the loss of any players.

For Arsenal fans, well it is as devisive as ever. Some like me are just relieved that if this story is true then the saga is over and we can hopefully bring in other players and focus on the season (that is until the Na$ri saga becomes a circus). Others will be pissed off that Arsene has sold one of our best players (let the litany of “we’ll never win anything” statements begin). Hell, as one of my twitter followers said to me – there is something for everyone, the doom and gloomers, the AKBers, and the pragmatists. There is something for everyone to glom on in this story.

Of course when the deal becomes final we’ll probably do a retrospective on Fabregas. While I was upset at how he has handled this as player who supposedly loves this club, there is no denying what he has meant to this club. He is a special talent and should be regarded as such. Will he ever be recognized as an Arsenal legend. Not likely. His achievements on the club are individual only. Had he turned those individual achievements into club achievements then maybe. But that is for another story.

So What’s It Mean?

If the BBC report is true, Arsenal intend to take the money they gain from the sale of Fabregas (and Na$ri) and turn it into players. Reports from El Mundo Deportivo in Spain, say that a deal for Valencia midfielder, Juan Mata is in place and is just waiting on the Fabregas deal to be finalized in order to do all the requisite cash transfers.

John Cross in today’s Mirror also reports that in addition to Mata, Arsenal will go after two of the primary CB targets of Cahill, Samba, and Jagielka. There is a lot of play around Birmingham’s Scott Dann which has a lot of people scratching their heads. Cross in his article says that Dann is a target but only if Wenger cannot prise away all of his main targets. Additionally, in the German press it seems that Arsenal once again have interest in Werder Bremen and German international Per Mertesacker. At 6’6″ he definitely fits the height bill but not the EPL ready bill.

Frankly, I am of the mind that Arsenal will sign two defenders but it will be a mix of one of the primary targets and one of the lesser targets. The more I think on it, that would seem to mean Cahill and Dann. My preference would be Cahill and Mertesacker but with our trend towards the “re-Englification” of the Arsenal squad, Dann makes more sense.

Why Cahill? Well, for all the obvious reasons.  However, I really think this deal is close because of stories out today that Bolton are in discussions to land Shaun Wright Phillips from Manchester City. I believe that Bolton are a club that needs to sell in order to buy and SWP is going to come with a premium price. Okay not Man City typical prices but a big enough price tag that a sale of a top player would be required to fund it. So I am beginning to wonder if Arsenal have not already negotiated a deal pending the sale of Na$ri and Fabregas. Yeah, it is absolute conjecture and gut instinct. But it is what I do for a living and did in the Navy and I’ve gotten pretty good at putting pieces together (lets all pray I am right on this).

Dann also makes sense for a couple reasons. First Samba is down with a groin injury and Arsene doesn’t need any more injured players – he’s got enough. Second Jagielka does not look like he wants to leave Everton nor do they seem ready to let him go. Mertesacker while tall and strong is also slow. Given how we play the high line, a slow CB is ALL we need (please insert sarcastic tone.) Dann is EPL ready, he is also 6’2″ (1.88 m) and 169 lbs (76.27 kg). I don’t know a whole lot more about Dann (working on it) but I don’t think its a coinicdence that Birmgingham’s dive in their season started about the time he went out with an injury.

The deals for Cahill and Dann would run about £23 million assuming we give in to Bolton’s original fee of £17 million. Which if we used the Cesc money will still leave us with a £6 million profit – thats good business by Arsenal standards.

Na$ri???

With the sale of Cesc Fabregas and the possible purchase of the two defenders that would leave only about £6 million to turn into the Mata sale. Where would fund Mata? Or if we fund Mata with Cesc money how do we fund the purchase of the defenders?  Given what the fees are set to be either could be done in any order and still wind up with Arsenal turning a profit. (it’s all about profits ya know). I don’t know what order the transfers will go in but as I said the talk is all the funds would go to player purchases. If Fabregas is finalized first I would think we would get Mata first as a pseudo replacement (even though he is better replacement for Na$ri).

Anyway, about the Na$ri deal, from what I’ve been told Arsenal have a deal on the table that is the second best deal Arsenal have offered one of their players. The refusal to engage the club by Na$ri is not something new this summer and has actually been persistent since the time when the revised deal was first offered in the winter.  Additionally, I have learned that Arsenal are basically playing City and United off of each other to get a very good fee – that they will then (we hope) turn into player purchases.

City seems the most likely destination. Unless United sense they can’t get Wesley Schneider from Inter. I can’t see United letting City get any better. If Na$ri goes to City, I suspect like all departures from here will have a good first season and tank off. I equate this to what I think is Mancini’s biggest weakness. It’s the ability to nuture and bring talent along.  Na$ri has improved steadily under the tutelage of Wenger. I don’t see that happening at City. My prime example of this is Adam Johnson who as supremely talented as he is, has hit a wall developmentally. And don’t get me started on Mario Balotelli. Mancini does well with players that need little help developing. He wants plug and play players – players that are experienced enough that once they learn his system he has to do little to nothing with them.

Och but if I go down this path, I will not have anything for my farewell to Na$ri piece.

Suffice it to say – that Na$ri and Fabregas will be used as the impetus to make these purchases. That is if you believe an unnamed board member talking to the BBC.

Some other quick goodies:

• Lot of chatter in the twitterverse and on some NUFC blogs that the unnamed team that Bendtner could go to is no other than the Geordies up in Tyneside.
• I have a list of our all time money grubbing gooners – so far they are Cashley Gold, Flamoney, Adebuywhore, and Na$ri. Anyone we should add.
• Serious note, not sure if match will go ahead this week. Spurs v Everton has already been called off because of riots. Still waiting on word from the EPL as to what is happening. We’ll churn out a pre match review tomorrow regardless.